It's Not Wilson in the Casket

I think it is at least somewhat likely that the last two yet-to-be-revealed members of the Oceanic 6 are Tom Hanks and Wilson (thank you, Kenny Havok), so if you are looking for really intelligent LOST analysis, this is not the place to be seeking it. I suggest making a trip over to Doc Jensen at Entertainment Weekly. I agree with most of what he argues, although he's way more excited about the possibility of 815/Other clones existing on the mainland than I am.

What I can promise is a regular dose of irresponsible speculation and rumor mongering. Let's start with my new favorite question: Who's in the casket at the end of season 3?

I always thought it was Michael in the casket but after the season premier when they introduced the Oceanic 6 idea, it wouldn't have made any sense for Michael to make it back to the mainland. How would he have explained how he got back? What would he have said happened to the plane and the other survivors? It doesn't seem like it would fit to have Michael make it back, so now I'm thinking he never returned to the mainland. Furthermore, I think it's very likely Michael is Ben's spy on the freighter. Don't ask me where "bigger, taller" Walt is. I don't even have a scientific wild ass guess for that. All I know is that he is probably bugging the hell out of the freighter crew yelling "WAAALLLTT!" as they travel across the Pacific.

I now think it's very likely that Ben is in the casket. We now know that Ben is still pulling the strings and controlling at least Sayid, having him killing Ben's foes. Ben's presumably doing this order to protect the island, likely from Matthew Abaddon (and Penny's father), who sent the Freighter Foursome to the Island to get Ben. As the exchanged at the end of 4x4 indicates, Sayid is killing in order to "protect his friends." This is important, and we can safely make the logical jump that Ben allowed six of the survivors off the Island to finish his dirty work. Once that work is done, Ben has presumably promised that he will let the balance of the survivors off. This explains why Jack - whose character would never willingly leave the Island and survivors behind knowing he couldn't return and have to lie about the course of events - is keeping his mouth shut and trying to keep Hurley quiet as well. He knows that once Ben has secured the Island's safety, Jack will be able to see the remaining 815 survivors released. That's enough to keep him quiet...at least for now.

Before the dirty work is done though, Ben dies/is killed and Jack - paralyzed by grief of leaving behind 40+ survivors - and knowing no other way to get back to the Island, absolutely loses it (see end of season 3). No one would come to Ben's funeral. Anyone he has ever known is either on the Island, dead on the Island, or unwilling to associate themselves with him. And a final nail into the Michael-idea coffin...why would the funeral home director ask if Jack was "family or friend" if Michael was in the casket? My excellent observational skills tell me that Michael's black...Jack's white. Another interesting piece overlooked in the scene; there is a notebook/journal next to the casket, a common accessory of Ben's.

Just a few loose ends regarding this. Why did Kate tell Jack, "This isn't going to change" at the end of season 3 when they met at the airport? If it was just a matter of eliminating threats to the Island, Jack's anguish could be assuaged. Who is Kate with when she says "he" will be wondering where she is?

And a few other questions: Who planted the fake 815 crash out in the Sunda Trench? If the Freighter Foursome wasn't expecting to find 815 survivors, why did the pilot (Frank Lapidus) memorize the names on the manifest? And why are the FFs afraid of Minkowski and why couldn't he come to the phone to talk with Miles in 4x2?